Where stock analysts predict China’s consumers will spend in 2026
Consumer spending trends are starting to emerge within the experiences economy as the year gets underway, and stock analysts are picking out the names they expect to be winners. While the consumer staples sector likely doesn’t have much room to run this year, there are more opportunities in discretionary and services spending — such as food and beverage, said Charlie Chen, head of research at China Construction Bank International Securities. He noted that services-heavy sectors also help support employment, in line with government goals, and local authorities may release more vouchers to spur regional tourism. But overall, consumption is still recovering this year and its growth won’t be a driver of national gross domestic product, he said. China’s goods retail sales grew by 4% in 2025 as of November, while that of services rose by a slightly faster 5.4%. Full-year figures are due out Jan. 19. Bank of America goes beyond the sector approach to comparing Chinese retail plays to convertible bonds. “While consumer growth has been muted in general, most leading consumer companies still enjoy strong net cash positions and cashflow generation,” the BofA analysts said in a Jan. 6 report. “Many consumer stocks now enjoy 4-6% dividend yields… which can offer some downside protection,” the analysts said. Their two favorite China consumer stocks are hotel chain operator H World , for growth, and KFC operator Yum China , for yields. Bank of America rates H World’s U.S.-listed shares as buy, with a price target of $62. The analysts predict revenue per available room will turn positive this year with 2% growth, reversing an estimated 2% decline in 2025. Longer term, the analysts expect H World to benefit from increasing artificial intelligence adoption, transformation to an asset-light model and non-traditional hotel monetization opportunities such as technology and memberships. As for Yum China, which also runs Pizza Hut in China, BofA has a price target of $56.50 and a buy rating. “We see YUMC as a high-quality, high-yield steady compounder with visibility, offering > 10% EPS growth & low- to mid-teens total return potential,” the analysts said. China Construction Bank International also lists Yum China as one of its favorite consumer services stock picks for the year, given the company’s “excellent execution” and “strong bargaining power.” The analysts have a price target of $58. Stock analysts also still see some support from China’s extended trade-in policy announced in late December. The measures expand purchase subsidies to AI glasses and certain smart home products , while narrowing the range of eligible appliances . The “trade-in program favors white goods,” HSBC analysts said in a report Thursday. One of their preferred China consumer picks is Hong Kong-listed appliance company Midea . “In 2026, we remain positive on Midea given its solid earnings growth and high-quality shareholder returns,” the analysts said. “We believe that Midea can maintain a stable profit margin through price hikes and cost reduction and achieve sizable revenue growth with the development of the OBM (Own Brand Manufacturing) business in overseas consumer sectors, expansion to commercial sectors and M & A deals.” HSBC rates the stock a buy, with a price target of 109 Hong Kong dollars ($13.98). — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
