With MSTR concerns assuaged, look to traditional signals around BTC

There are also signs of seller exhaustion and believer accumulation. As seen in prior market bottoms, BTC can find a floor when few sellers remain and when accumulation from holders with conviction picks up. This is playing out with around 45% of long-term holder supply sitting at a loss, per data from Checkonchain, with levels associated with prior market bottoms. It suggests many of the sellers are already out, leaving only convicted holders, who are not only able to withstand the volatility but who may also be adding to their positions. This is showing up in the data, with BTC supply held by long term holders climbing to a record high in recent weeks. Meanwhile, on-chain movements of longer-held BTC have abated from last year, alleviating earlier pressures.

The situation today

BTC has been in a down market since October, fighting a rotating set of headwinds largely unrelated to bitcoin’s underlying attributes. The question now is what happens when those headwinds change to tailwinds. With growth in money supply accelerating, sentiment and momentum could soon turn around.

There are also signs of seller exhaustion and believer accumulation. As seen in prior market bottoms, BTC can find a floor when few sellers remain and when accumulation from holders with conviction picks up. This is playing out with around 45% of long-term holder supply sitting at a loss, per data from Checkonchain, with levels associated with prior market bottoms. It suggests many of the sellers are already out, leaving only convicted holders, who are not only able to withstand the volatility but who may also be adding to their positions. This is showing up in the data, with BTC supply held by long term holders climbing to a record high in recent weeks. Meanwhile, on-chain movements of longer-held BTC have abated from last year, alleviating earlier pressures.