India-US trade: Exports rebound in November; supply-chain shifts and holiday restocking drive recovery, says GTRI
India’s exports to the US bounced back in November. The rebound was largely supported by supply-chain adjustments and pre-holiday season inventory restocking, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).The stocks grew by by 22.61% to reach $6.98 billion, according to commerce ministry data. This recovery came despite the US imposing 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods since August. The trade data shows imports from the US also grew significantly, jumping 38.29 per cent to $5.25 billion in November. For the April-November period, exports to the US rose by 11.38 per cent to $59.04 billion, while imports increased by 13.49 per cent to $35.4 billion.GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava explained that the earlier drop in exports between May and September was due to uncertainty about the tariff hikes. Buyers had put orders on hold and reduced their inventories initially but later adjusted accordingly. “Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting, absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products,” he said.The recovery pattern was visible across most product categories, affecting 85 per cent of the November exports. Smartphones, which are the nation’s biggest export item, showed this trend clearly. Their exports fell from $2.29 billion in May to $884.6 million in September, before recovering to $1.8 billion in November.Meanwhile, gems and jewelry exports dropped from $500.2 million to $202.8 million before bouncing back to $406.2 million. Machinery exports also followed this trend, falling to $516.8 million before recovering to $614.6 million in November.However, GTRI warned that this recovery might not last. They claimed that it was more about adjusting to tougher tariffs rather than a permanent improvement. The think tank also added that businesses were using short-term strategies to cope with the new trade environment.Pharmaceutical exports showed strength, reaching $669.2 million in November. Mineral fuels and oils, which were exempt from tariffs, saw relatively minor changes, moving from $291.5 million in May to $274.3 million in November after a brief dip to $251.5 million in September.
